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AHF Honors and Remembers Jimmy Carter as Human Rights Champion( MENAFN - IANS) New Delhi, Dec 30 (IANS) Samajwadi Party (SP) legislator Rais Shaikh has written to Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis urging the state government to hold the long-overdue elections to local bodies, including the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), before March 7, 2025. The letter, also addressed to Deputy Chief Minister and Urban Development Minister Eknath Shinde, highlights the prolonged delay in restoring Democratic governance to local bodies across Maharashtra. In his letter, Shaikh stressed that the BMC, the largest local government body in Asia, has been functioning without elected representatives since March 7, 2022, when its previous term ended. The current administrator is set to complete three years in office by March 7, 2025. "It is not a matter of pride for Indian democracy that the financial capital of the country has been run for so long without people's representatives," he stated. Shaikh also pointed out that elections to 29 municipal corporations, 228 municipal councils, 29 Nagar Panchayats, 26 Zilla Parishads, and 289 Panchayat Samitis in the state remain pending. He demanded that these elections, including those for the BMC, be conducted without further delay to uphold democratic principles. Following the state Assembly elections, political parties are preparing for local body elections, including those for the BMC, which is the wealthiest civic body in the country. On February 2, it presented a Rs 59,954.75 crore budget for the year 2024-25. However, sources indicate that these elections are unlikely to take place before April due to ongoing Supreme Court cases concerning the number of wards, the number of councillors per ward, and the process for the wards' formation. Elections for all 29 municipal corporations in the state, as well as approximately 280 nagar parishads and nagar panchayats, are still pending. These local bodies are currently being managed by administrators. In some cases, elections for municipal corporations have been delayed for 2 to 3 years. Notably, the BMC has been under the administration of an appointed official for two and a half years, following the expiration of its term in March 2022. MENAFN29122024000231011071ID1109040156 Legal Disclaimer: MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.
A butterfly collector in Africa with more than 4.2 million seeks to share them for the futureTejada scores 18, Towson beats Bryant 70-65
In addition to providing combat gear, the US Department of State has also reiterated its condemnation of Russian aggression in Ukraine and its support for the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The decision to support Ukrainian volunteers is part of a broader strategy to counter Russian influence in the region and uphold the principles of international law and order. By backing the efforts of Ukrainian citizens to defend their country, the United States sends a clear message that it stands with Ukraine in the face of aggression and destabilization.
Unrivaled, the new 3-on-3 women's basketball league launching this winter, signed LSU star guard Flau'jae Johnson to a name, image and likeness deal. Johnson is the second college player to ink an agreement with Unrivaled, following UConn's Paige Bueckers. They won't be participating in the upcoming inaugural season, but Johnson and Bueckers will have equity stakes in the league. Unrivaled dropped a video on social media Thursday showing Johnson -- who also has a burgeoning rap career -- performing a song while wearing a shirt that reads, "The Future is Unrivaled." The deal will see Johnson create additional promotional content for the league. Johnson, 21, was a freshman on the LSU team that won the 2023 national championship. Now in her junior year, Johnson is averaging career highs of 22.2 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game through 10 games for the No. 5 Tigers (10-0). She ranks eighth in Division I in scoring. Johnson has career averages of 14.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in 82 career appearances (80 starts) for LSU. --Field Level MediaTwo NFC contenders looking to clinch their respective divisions face off on Sunday night, as the Washington Commanders host the Atlanta Falcons . Jayden Daniels ' historic outing vs. the Philadelphia Eagles led Washington to a win last Sunday, while Michael Penix Jr . won his first NFL start vs. the lowly New York Giants . The Falcons outscored the Giants by 27 points, but Penix didn't account for a single touchdown. His defense scored twice off of Drew Lock interceptions, while Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Facing this Commanders squad on the road in prime time is going to be a different kind of test for last year's FBS passing yards leader, but it is really our first opportunity to see how different this Falcons offense can be with a new signal-caller. Let's break down this prime-time NFC showdown, but first, here's how to watch the game: All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus. Commanders vs. Falcons where to watch Date: Sunday, Dec. 29 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover) Channel: NBC | Stream: fubo Follow: CBS Sports App Odds: Commanders -4 O/U 46.5 Clinching Scenarios Washington clinches playoff berth with: Commanders win or tie Buccaneers loss or tie Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with: Falcons win and Buccaneers loss When the Commanders have the ball While the Eagles didn't have Jalen Hurts for the majority of Week 16, what Daniels accomplished against what was statistically the No. 1 defense in football was incredible. He became just the second quarterback ever to throw for 250 yards, five touchdowns and rush for 75 yards. Again, this is a player who has played in just 15 NFL games . It was the passing game that carried Washington vs. Philly last week. Olamide Zaccheaus caught five passes for a team-high 70 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner, while Terry McLaurin caught five passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. McLaurin is someone who is capable of taking advantage of an Atlanta secondary that allowed Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to combine for 265 receiving yards and five touchdowns earlier this month. McLaurin has already tied a franchise record with 12 receiving touchdowns this season, and has already secured his fifth straight 1,000-yard receiving campaign. That also tied a franchise record. When the Falcons have the ball Penix is looking to become the first Falcons quarterback to ever start his career 2-0. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and one interception in his first start, but the interception was really a Kyle Pitts catch that the tight end handed over to the wrong team in the red zone. All in all, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris labeled Penix's first start, " almost flawless football ." Penix peppered Drake London with targets. The former No. 8 overall pick caught five of eight balls thrown his direction for 59 yards. However, it was Darnell Mooney who was Atlanta's leading receiver with 82 yards on five catches. In what was a surprise on offense, the dual-threat weapon of Robinson tied a season-low with just 9 yards receiving. He was still the main option on offense, rushing 22 times for 94 yards and two scores, and you can expect Penix to rely on him again come Sunday night. Robinson has recorded 1,616 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns this season. One player Penix and Robinson will have to look out for on Sunday is Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu . He's been one of the most impressive defensive players this season, having recorded 89 combined tackles, eight sacks and an interception. Luvu could potentially become the first player to record 100 tackles and 10 sacks in a single season since the legendary James Harrison did so in 2010. Prediction How the Falcons defense contains Daniels is going to be key for an upset victory. While they held the Las Vegas Raiders and Giants to single digits over the last two games, Atlanta's defense recently gave up 42 points to the Minnesota Vikings and 38 points to the Denver Broncos . I'm excited to see these two rookie quarterbacks face off under the lights, but will be siding with the better team at home. Washington is 9-5-1 ATS this season, while Atlanta is 6-9 ATS. More importantly, the Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Projected score: Commanders 28-22
In conclusion, the CCDI's "three strikes" campaign and the crackdown on corruption demonstrate the party's commitment to upholding integrity and accountability within its ranks. While progress has been made in investigating and punishing corrupt officials, it is crucial that all individuals found guilty of disciplinary violations are held accountable for their actions. By enforcing strict disciplinary measures, the party can maintain its credibility and integrity and foster a culture of transparency and accountability within its ranks.
The EU regulatory agency, known for its tough stance on antitrust violations, wasted no time in taking action against Google and Meta. The agency imposed hefty fines on both companies for their anti-competitive behavior and issued a stern warning against future infractions. This sent a strong message to other tech companies that the EU's regulatory body would not hesitate to crack down on any attempts to manipulate the market for their own benefit.
BOSTON , Dec. 13, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The China Fund, Inc. (NYSE: CHN) (the "Fund") announced today that the Fund's annual stockholder meeting (the "Meeting") will be scheduled for Thursday, March 13, 2025 , via a virtual forum at 11:00 a.m. ET . Stockholders of record as of January 15, 2025 will be entitled to notice of, and to attend and vote at, the Meeting. The notice for the Meeting will be mailed to shareholders on or about February 10, 2025 . The Fund is a closed-end management investment company with the objective of seeking long-term capital appreciation by investing primarily in equity securities (i) of companies for which the principal securities trading market is in the People's Republic of China (" China "), or (ii) of companies for which the principal securities trading market is outside of China , or constituting direct equity investments in companies organized outside of China , that in both cases derive at least 50% of their revenues from goods and services sold or produced, or have at least 50% of their assets, in China . While the Fund is permitted to invest in direct equity investments of companies organized in China , it presently holds no such investments. Shares of the Fund are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "CHN". The Fund's investment manager is Matthews International Capital Management, LLC. Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings.Pakistan, Turkiye aim to boost trade to $5bn KARACHI: Ambassador of Turkiye Irfan Neziroglu announced that efforts are underway to enhance the trade volume between Pakistan and Turkiye from the current $1.2 billion to at least $5 billion, following an agreement between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Speaking at the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) on Friday, Ambassador Neziroglu revealed that a high-level consultative strategic meeting is planned for January or February next year. “The meeting will explore effective ways to address barriers hindering trade between our two brotherly nations,” he said. Highlighting the importance of collaboration, the ambassador stressed, “Given the evolving global landscape, Turkiye and Pakistan must walk together. Cooperation between our countries is essential and must be strengthened across all fields. Our doors are always open to our Pakistani brothers and sisters, and we are committed to doing our best in their interest.” He emphasised the enduring friendship between the two nations, describing Pakistan as a true friend and brother that has consistently supported Turkiye during challenging times. “A strong Pakistan is in Turkiye’s interest,” he added, pledging to work towards strengthening bilateral ties in all areas. The ambassador acknowledged that business ties remain below expectations even though the political and defence relations between Türkiye and Pakistan are quite satisfactory. He called for collective efforts from both sides to address this gap. He said that the Turkish embassy and consulates in Pakistan are fully prepared to facilitate businesspeople looking to improve trade relations with their counterparts in Turkiye. He suggested organising a workshop between the business communities of both countries to identify trade barriers and find solutions to mutual challenges. “Turkiye has extensive expertise in industry and agriculture, having overcome past economic difficulties to become a significant economic power. Pakistan, on the other hand, excels in the IT sector. By leveraging each other’s strengths, we can foster growth and collaboration,” he said. Chairman BMG Zubair Motiwala, participating via Zoom, reiterated that trade between Pakistan and Turkiye has the potential to increase five-fold with concerted efforts. The meeting concluded with a shared commitment to deepening economic ties, leveraging mutual strengths, and fostering long-term collaboration between the two nations.
DENTON, Texas (AP) — Johnathan Massie led North Texas over Houston Christian on Sunday with 14 points off of the bench in a 62-46 victory. Massie finished 5 of 8 from the field for the Mean Green (9-3). Moulaye Sissoko scored 10 points while finishing 4 of 6 from the floor and added 10 rebounds. Atin Wright went 3 of 9 from the field (2 for 6 from 3-point range) to finish with nine points. The Huskies (4-9, 1-1 Southland Conference) were led in scoring by Julian Mackey, who finished with 14 points. Elijah Brooks added seven points and two steals. North Texas took the lead with 18:03 remaining in the first half and never looked back. The score was 30-23 at halftime, with Massie racking up eight points. North Texas pulled away with a 7-0 run in the second half to extend a seven-point lead to 14 points. The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar .Over the years, I have watched her navigate the challenges of childhood with grace and resilience. I have seen her fall and pick herself up, stumble and find her footing, cry and laugh with equal abandon. But as she has grown older, I have also noticed a shadow that lingers in the corners of her eyes, a whisper of sadness that tugs at the corners of her mouth. I have seen her wrestle with questions that have no easy answers, grapple with emotions that defy logic, and confront fears that threaten to overwhelm her fragile heart.
In light of these factors, it is possible for Barcelona to successfully navigate the negotiations with both Nathan Ake and Gerard Pique. The club's management and coaching staff will play a crucial role in communicating their plans and vision for the team's defensive unit. By transparently addressing the roles and expectations for both players, Barcelona can ensure a harmonious and competitive environment within the squad.
With a population of over 48 million people, Yunnan boasts a diverse demographic profile characterized by a relatively young and dynamic labor force. The report indicates that the proportion of working-age population in Yunnan is higher than the national average, indicating a potentially strong labor force for the province's economic development.
How co-writing a book threatened the Carters’ marriageVentive Hospitality share price made a decent debut on Monday, December 30, as the stock was listed at a nearly 12 per cent premium on the BSE at ₹ 718.15. Ventive Hospitality share price opened at ₹ 718.15, up 11.7 per cent, against its issue price of ₹ 643. The stock soon extended gains and touched the level of ₹ 732. On the NSE, Ventive Hospitality share price opened 11.4 per cent higher at ₹ 716 and touched the level of ₹ 732.80. Around 10:05 AM, the stock traded at ₹ 717.85 on the BSE and ₹ 716.45 on the NSE. The stock's listing was broadly in line with grey market expectations. The grey market premium (GMP) of the stock Monday morning was ₹ 68, which indicated the stock could be listed at a premium of nearly 11 per cent. Ventive Hospitality IPO details The Ventive Hospitality IPO opened for subscription on Friday, December 20, and concluded on Tuesday, December 24. Share allotment was finalised on Thursday, December 26. It was an entirely new issue of 2.49 crore shares to raise ₹ 1,600 crore. JM Financial Limited, Axis Capital Limited, HSBC Securities & Capital Markets Pvt Ltd, ICICI Securities Limited, IIFL Securities Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited, SBI Capital Markets Limited are the book-running lead managers of the IPO , while KFin Technologies is the registrar for the issue. Akriti Mehrotra, a research analyst at StoxBox, pointed out that Ventive Hospitality operates 11 luxury properties, including flagship hotels like JW Marriott Pune and The Ritz-Carlton Pune, benefiting from strong partnerships with global brands such as Marriott and Hilton. However, its reliance on third-party operators for 78 per cent of its keys exposes it to reputational risks. "Ventive also generates 41 per cent of its revenue from annuity assets, providing stable cash flows. With a strong financial track record, including a 44 per cent revenue CAGR, and plans for expansion, we recommend holding shares for medium to long-term growth,” said Mehrotra. Read all market-related news here Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.As the debate continues to unfold, it is important for all parties involved to approach the situation with empathy and understanding. Rather than resorting to online attacks and public shaming, a more constructive approach would be to engage in dialogue and seek common ground. It is crucial to remember that miscommunications and misunderstandings can easily arise in the fast-paced world of social media, and that thoughtful reflection and open-mindedness are essential to resolving conflicts.
Recently, rumors suggesting that Hisense, a leading global electronics manufacturer, is planning to lay off a significant number of employees have been circulating online. These rumors have caused concerns and anxiety among both the company's employees and the general public. In response to these speculations, Hisense has issued a statement categorically denying any plans for mass layoffs and reassures everyone that the rumors are baseless and unfounded.
Days after furloughing dozens of its employees without pay, EV startup Canoo told the remainder of its staff they will be on a “mandatory unpaid break” through at least the end of the year, Friday A company email seen by the outlet said employees would be locked out of Canoo’s systems by the end of Friday, with their benefits continuing through the end of this month. The report follows Canoo’s last week that it was idling its Oklahoma factories and furloughing employees while it worked “to finalize securing the capital necessary to move forward with its operations.” As notes, the company reported that it had only about $700,000 left in the bank last month. Also on Friday, the company a 1-for-20 reverse stock split, effective December 24th. Canoo says the consolidation aims to keep its stock listed on the Nasdaq exchange and attract “a broader group of institutional and retail investors.” Canoo was founded in 2017 to sell electric vans and trucks to adventure-seeking customers but has mostly only ever made vehicles for the US government. As ’s Andrew Hawkins , analysts have warned of its risk of insolvency as it’s teetered on the edge of running out of cash since 2022. Canoo has lost a steady stream of executives since then, including and, more recently, its . /China’s annual exercise of setting its growth target at the Two Sessions is extremely important as it sets the tone for government policy for the year. China’s government has rarely failed to meet its growth targets, with only two cases on record where growth fell significantly short of the target, in 1990 and 2022. The growth target set will also show how serious policymakers are about shoring up growth amid what will likely be a less supportive external environment in 2025. • Baseline case (‘around 5%’ or ‘above 4.5%’): in our baseline case, we expect China to either repeat the ‘around 5%’ growth target in 2025 for a third consecutive year or to select an “above 4.5%” target. Either of these targets would set a relatively acceptable floor for growth and would send a message that the government remains confident in its ability to stabilise growth. To successfully manage this goal, we would likely need to see a stronger fiscal and monetary policy stimulus push in 2025. Policy focus will likely shift towards boosting domestic demand, as the odds of export demand holding up are not high. There will also likely be targeted support for industries affected by tariffs. • Bear case (around 4.5% or below): this more conservative target would naturally be easier to reach and reduce the pressure on policymakers. This is a potential option if policymakers are not expecting the impact of domestic stimulus to be significant enough to offset the drag from the external environment. This sort of result would likely be viewed by markets negatively as a tolerance for lower growth would likely lead to a weaker policy support stance. • Bull case (Above 5%): this would be bold messaging and a signal of confidence in an environment where most economists are expecting some drag from US tariffs to materialise. Securing above 5% growth would likely require a significant policy push beyond what has already been announced. This sort of commitment would likely act as a catalyst for a rise in markets. Our baseline forecast has China’s GDP growth at 4.6% YoY in 2025, incorporating a slight net drag from weaker external demand but a stronger supportive policy push domestically. There is a higher than normal level of uncertainty to the forecasts given various question marks surrounding the scenario. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has had a busy year. The central bank announced a new monetary policy framework reform in June, aiming to improve the market transmission of monetary policy by featuring the 7-day reverse repo rate as the new benchmark interest rate and expanding open market operations. During the year, we saw 30bp of 7-day reverse repo rate cuts, 50bp of 1-year MLF rate cuts, 100bp of RRR cuts (with the possibility of another cut in December), as well as new programmes introduced to support the equity and property markets. This pace of easing was generally a little faster than most forecasts, and the PBoC’s stabilisation efforts were generally well-received by market participants, with September’s package, in particular, sparking a furious rally in Hong Kong and Mainland Chinese equities. The efficacy of current rate cuts is up for debate. At first glance, China’s economic activity data has stabilised since September, though it’s questionable how much of that can be attributed to monetary policy given there is typically a longer lag effect. Credit activity has remained weak on an aggregate level, but our channel checks have indicated that there has been a slight uptick in loan demand after rates were lowered. In 2025, we believe the PBoC will continue to build on the foundations laid in 2024. We expect 20-30bp of rate cuts next year, with more if US tariffs come in earlier or higher than anticipated. Another 50bp RRR cut is widely expected in the coming months, and we could see a cumulative 100bp of RRR cuts before the end of 2025. We also anticipate further expansion of open market operations and a gradual wind-down of the medium-term lending facility in the next part of the PBoC’s reform and continued targeted programmes to support vulnerable areas of the economy. While monetary policy generally exceeded expectations in 2024, fiscal policy mostly underwhelmed markets. Numerous local governments continued to face short-term debt pressures, with various reports of delayed payments to vendors and staff. In such a challenging situation, it is of little surprise that many local governments did not have the bandwidth to ramp up stimulus. The RMB 10tr fiscal package announced at the National People’s Congress in November sets the stage for 2025. We think the market’s lukewarm reaction to the announcement is underestimating the impact of this package; addressing local government short-term debt pressures is a vitally important step in freeing local governments up to resume their traditional roles as executors of fiscal stimulus, and once this is done we expect to see a more forceful fiscal policy stance next year. We expect fixed asset investment growth will see a modest pick up next year from the current 3.4% to around 5%, with government-led investment still likely to lead private sector investment. Investment will likely be concentrated in green infrastructure, as well as continued investment in roads, bridges, and railways. The multiplier effect of fiscal stimulus will likely be less than in the past, given the low-hanging fruit for investment is largely gone. • For the property market, the direction is likely to be in the form of ramping up purchases of unsold homes to convert to affordable housing or other purposes; while these plans have been announced this year, execution has been understandably quite slow. • For consumption, we think there is a possibility of accelerating the various programmes put into play this year. We saw a return of the “trade-in” programmes across many cities, which has been a clear driver of retail sales growth in the last few months. Consumption vouchers were also rolled out in Shanghai, and there is potential to see larger programmes across different cities. This year’s targets were primarily focused on household appliances and autos, but there is no reason other categories couldn’t be added to the mix next year. Additionally, we could potentially see adjustments to tax brackets to ease the tax burden on lower-income households. Overall, we think fiscal policy will be one of the keys to growth stability next year, but the scale, pace, and efficacy of this rollout represent significant uncertainty to our outlook. Real estate has been the largest drag on the Chinese economy in 2024. In terms of industry developments, 2024 was a quintessential glass-half-full or half-empty year for the Chinese property market. • On the one hand, it looks like the property market crisis that dominated headlines toward the end of 2023 was averted. Property developer defaults have slowed, banks have not collapsed, and despite enormous angst over abandoned projects, through the first 10 months of the year, there were more than 420 million square meters of property completions. The rapidly increasing inventories of unsold properties finally peaked in February 2024 and have started to gradually come down. • On the other hand, prices continued to fall, and despite a plethora of policy support for the property sector in 2024, prospective buyers are still understandably cautious after years of restrictive policy. Through the first 10 months of the year, secondary market prices were down -7.5%, and primary market prices were down -5.5%. From the 2021 peak, prices are now down -15.% and -9.4% respectively. There’s still clearly a lot of work to be done, and stabilising property prices remains paramount to maintaining household confidence; it is difficult to expect households to confidently spend when their biggest asset is losing value by the month. We expect the pace of state-owned enterprise (SOE) and government acquisitions of property to pick up in 2025, and this combined with further expansions to existing measures to improve affordability and reduce barriers to purchases will help the market establish a trough. We think property prices will finally bottom out in 2025, with an L-shaped recovery more likely than a U or V-shaped one. The stabilisation will start from China’s core, the Tier 1 cities, then gradually spread through to Tier 2 cities. Tier 3 and 4 cities’ performance will be more mixed and may take longer to recover given a greater supply-demand imbalance, but the overall property price index will find a bottom. The pace of housing inventory decline will also accelerate in 2025 as state-led purchases of unsold homes pick up. In our baseline scenario, inventories are still unlikely to return to pre-crackdown levels next year but there is growing hope that with increased state buying this could be managed in 2026 versus the current pace where it may only be seen toward the end of 2027. We have argued that it will be difficult to see a recovery of real estate investment until prices have bottomed out and inventories have normalised. It will still be challenging to see both conditions fulfilled in 2025, but we think the Chinese property market could gradually move past the worst part of this cycle. The other big drag to Chinese growth this year has been the weakening of consumption. Retail sales growth has slowed from 7.2% YoY in 2023 to just 3.5% YoY YTD through the first 10 months of 2024. As the impact of “revenge consumption” wore off, household spending momentum clearly softened, and consumer confidence broke to new record lows. • A persistent negative wealth effect over the last few years. Falling property prices play the largest role in this negative wealth effect, but equity markets have also been challenging for much of the past 3-4 years, and many investors were left sidelined for or bought the top of the rebound seen in 2024. • A nationwide cost-cutting environment has led to slow wage growth and diminishing income confidence. 2023 wage growth of 3.5% YoY was the lowest level since 1998. A PBoC survey of urban depositor confidence showed that income sentiment and income confidence hit record lows in the second quarter of 2024. Official data on these topics tends to be released with a significant lag, but we have not observed much of a turnaround yet, with numerous reports of pay freezes, pay cuts, and layoffs throughout the year. In 2025, we expect to see these headwinds gradually weaken somewhat but will remain a factor. We anticipate property prices bottoming out sometime in 2025, though given an L-shaped recovery is expected at best this turns from negative to neutral rather than a significant positive. Most companies that we have spoken to remain on the cautious side but with many cost-cutting moves already made in 2024, it’s possible the worst could be past on this side as well. As China continues its long-term economic transitions, a key aspect will be to ultimately unlock the potential of the domestic consumer. The two long-term keys are to increase the consumer’s spending power and their willingness to spend. China’s current economic situation gives a good window for policymakers to take the first steps toward this, by re-orienting policy support from the supply side to the demand side. The big question is how much tangible policy support for consumption we will see roll out next year. Policymakers had previously been reluctant to direct resources in this direction but there were signs of a shift in 2024 as more mainstream experts have added their voices to call for demand-side stimulus, and the government has rolled out various measures to test the waters. We think this will continue – as we discussed in the earlier question on fiscal policy, we expect an acceleration and expansion of trade-in programmes and consumption vouchers, and possible considerations for tax bracket adjustments to support consumption. Overall, we are looking for retail sales to rebound to around 4.5% YoY in 2025, with the potential for higher growth if we get stronger-than-expected policy support. China’s exports were perhaps the biggest upside surprise for the economy in 2024, and one of the main reasons China is set to achieve its ‘around 5%’ growth target. After 2023’s -4.6% YoY export growth and expectations for a tepid rebound of global trade in 2024, most forecasts were looking for barely positive growth, but through the first 10 months of the year, exports have grown by 5.1% YoY. Net exports are expected to directly contribute around 1ppt to GDP growth in 2024, and solid export demand has also been an indirect contributor to stronger-than-expected industrial production. However, after Trump’s US election victory and the high possibility of a re-escalation in trade friction, we expect the external demand picture for China will likely weaken in 2025. Estimates place China’s direct and indirect exports to the US at around US $600-700bn, with $506bn of those as direct exports. • We remain sceptical that tariffs will immediately be hiked to a 60% blanket tariff. We expect tariffs will start on a smaller scale with room for negotiations throughout the process, and we expect there will also be exemptions rather than the blanket tariff proposed. • Unless concurrent and equivalent tariffs are applied against numerous other countries, or if there is a good mechanism to effectively and directly target Chinese products regardless of where it is shipped, it is likely that re-exports will still be able to reduce some of the impact. • China will almost certainly ramp up supportive policy to help offset the shock from tariffs. As a result, the drag on growth could fall between 0.4ppt and 0.8ppt of GDP, but the ultimate impact on growth and consequently the extent of our downgrades to the GDP forecasts will be smaller. • China’s exports to the US as a proportion of total exports have fallen from a peak of 19% in 2018 to around 14.6% in 2024. • Furthermore, many of China’s export categories with the fastest growth such as automobiles, ships, and semiconductors do not have a high dependency on the US market. • Various re-export channels have also been established since the first trade war and it remains to be seen if these will also be cracked down upon in quick order. With that said, there is a potential downside risk that the US will try to align allies to isolate China with coordinated tariffs or establish a mechanism to crack down on Chinese-owned companies, though enforcement of such a rule would ostensibly be a logistical nightmare. Given China’s role in global supply chains, it is difficult to imagine too many countries willing to agree to these terms, but it is a risk worth considering as this sort of scenario could lead to a bigger shock than what we are currently pencilling in. The US aside, the backdrop for export demand from other destinations should be relatively stable and could help offset some of the impact. On the positive side, our ING forecasts point to decent growth in ASEAN and India, two increasingly important export destinations for China. On the negative side, a growth slowdown in the US, eurozone, Korea, and Taiwan could lead to weaker demand independent of tariffs. Overall, our baseline case expects China’s export growth to take a hit in 2025, and export growth should slow to be more or less flat in year-on-year terms, with the upside likely capped at low single-digit growth. We are likely to see a smaller contribution to GDP growth from net exports in 2025. We could see some frontloading of exports in the coming few months but momentum is likely to soften after this is done, unless the outcome of tariff negotiations is surprisingly positive. However, rebalancing of trade, expansions of overseas production facilities, and re-export channels should help limit the damage. China has been in a low inflation environment in 2024. Whether it has successfully avoided deflation depends on the metric used, but deflation risks clearly remain a concern. • Headline CPI inflation returned to positive territory in February and has remained there since. For much of the year, this was driven by non-food inflation, but in recent months has been driven by food prices. • Non-food inflation tipped into negative territory starting in September. This is particularly concerning as non-food inflation is arguably a better indication of deflationary pressure, given the cyclical nature of food prices. Cheaper vehicle prices as well as falling rents have been the major drags on non-food inflation. • PPI inflation has been negative since October 2022 and has fallen for the last few months after peaking at -0.8% YoY. Raw material prices have been the main drag on PPI inflation. • China’s GDP deflator has been in negative territory since 2Q23. This is perhaps the most direct indicator of deflation on a macro level – nominal GDP growth has been lower than real GDP growth for some time. At a September conference, former PBoC Governor Yi Gang said that policymakers “should focus on fighting the deflationary pressure”. Shortly after, the PBoC initiated this effort with a series of monetary policy easing measures, accelerating the pace of policy support There is concern that deflationary pressures could mount next year. One argument for tariffs is that they could increase China’s overcapacity problem, lead to further rounds of price competition and worsen deflationary pressure. The counter-argument is that China will certainly retaliate with its own tariffs which could push certain prices higher. Though tariffs have been in the headlines, perhaps more important will be how fiscal stimulus will be deployed in China next year. Focus on infrastructure could be a boost to commodity prices, while a pivot toward stimulating consumption could provide a bigger boost to CPI inflation. We are expecting inflation to remain low but trend a little higher in 2025. Our CPI inflation forecast for the year has a slight uptick to 0.9% YoY. Food inflation will likely be the main driver in the early months of 2025, but non-food inflation should gradually recover as supportive policies take effect. Risks to the inflation scenario are larger than usual given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and retaliation as well as the scale of domestic policy stimulus. Our core view on the Chinese yuan over the past year was that it would be a relatively low-volatility currency compared to other Asian currencies thanks to the PBoC’s priority on maintaining currency stability. Our forecasted 2024 fluctuation band of 7.00-7.30 has held up well for most of the year to date. Our call had been that under the previous status quo, the CNY was on a trajectory for modest appreciation, considering the start of the Fed rate cut cycle and expectations for China’s fiscal stimulus to pick up. • Trump’s impact on China is largely seen as negative by most economists, with tariffs and the related chain reaction front of mind for most investors. • The impact on trade and investment flows will be net negative for CNY. In a vacuum, higher tariffs will reduce China’s exports to the US and may accelerate the pace of outward direct investment to mitigate or reduce the impact of tariffs and sanctions. • A drag from tariffs could necessitate more monetary policy easing than previously forecasted in China, widening the US-China yield spread. • The possibility of intentional devaluation to partially offset tariffs. • Trump’s policies are seen as inflationary for the US, leading to fewer Fed cuts. This in turn will limit the degree of spread narrowing and weaken one of the key previous drivers for CNY appreciation. As a result, market forecasts have rapidly shifted in the other direction, and now a depreciation trend is expected for CNY in the next year. Many market participants have speculated that China will intentionally depreciate CNY to offset US tariffs, and there have been calls for CNY to be depreciated by 10-20%, and in more extreme cases, calls for a 50% depreciation to help offset tariffs. We do anticipate some depreciation pressure in an expected strong dollar environment. However, our view is that some of the depreciation forecasts have now swung a little too far in the opposite direction. • We don’t expect an intentional large-scale depreciation: o First, intentional devaluation will be ineffective to mitigate tariffs, as it will likely trigger currency manipulator claims and Trump’s administration can easily adjust tariffs further as needed. o Second, this will also undermine the efforts of the last few years to stabilise CNY, improve attractiveness as a settlement currency and avoid capital outflow pressures. o Third, given China’s trend of accelerating investment abroad, a stronger CNY facilitates these investments. o In sum, the costs would appear to outweigh the benefits at this point. • The PBoC will continue to ramp up the use of the counter-cyclical factor as necessary to resist rapid depreciation. Use of the counter-cyclical factor has already ramped up after Trump’s election victory. • We expect the USDCNY pair to move by less than the dollar index and think CNY will remain a low-volatility currency vis-à-vis most other Asian currencies. • Our 2025 forecast is for the USDCNY to move within a band between 7.00-7.40, with a further upside to 7.50 possible if tariffs come in earlier or are more aggressive than our forecasts. o A very low-probability but high-impact scenario that would throw fundamentals out the window would be the possibility of a modern-day Plaza Accord-type agreement on currency in order to settle trade disputes. China’s government bond market has been one of the few assets to outperform in the last few years, but it has also sparked a lot of controversy throughout the year, as many investors have been concerned about China’s very low government bond yields as a sign of deflation and economic weakness. Policymakers have also criticised yields as being out of alignment with fundamentals. • Why are China’s government bond yields so low? The typical explanations of economic pessimism and deflation concerns are certainly a relevant factor, but perhaps the main reason in our view is because CGBs remain the top option for many investors in a limited field for risk-free yield: o Deposit rates have declined as the PBoC has cut rates, with many time deposits now yielding under 1%. o RRR cuts have led to banks redirecting funds into the bond market rather than into the real economy given limited high-quality borrowing demand. o The property market bust and the spike in defaults have also raised questions about the safety of corporate bonds, especially high-yield bonds. o Several years of poor performance in equities has also limited many investors’ appetite, despite various high-yielding defensive plays available. o With capital controls, many domestic investors have limited options for diversification and seeking higher yields elsewhere in global markets. • Will Chinese government bonds continue to perform well in 2025? o Various factors suggest China’s government bonds will continue to fare well in 2025, including likely rate and RRR cuts and continued safe-haven demand. o Our baseline forecast for China’s 10-year government bond yield is for yields to gradually grind lower toward 1.9% by the end of the year. • Will the PBoC continue to intervene in the bond market, and is the 2% barrier a line in the sand? o While limited explanation was given for the PBoC’s intervention, two possible reasons were to avoid a bond market bubble (and a potential Silicon Valley Bank-esque event down the line), and the other was as policymakers wished to encourage funds to flow back toward risk assets. o The 2% level for China’s 10-year government bond yields has represented a psychological barrier in 2024. It briefly broke below 2% in intraday trading several times this year but was quickly met with selling pressure. December was the first time we saw the 2% level broached without an immediate bounceback. o We think this softening signals that policymakers will tolerate a move below the 2% level in 2025 as long as the move is gradual. • Will we see a flatter or steeper CGB yield curve next year? Despite extensive focus on falling long-term yields, the CGB yield curve has actually steepened slightly in 2024. We expect this trend to continue in 2025 for three main reasons: o The PBoC will likely need to continue to cut interest rates, which will drag the short end of the curve lower. o The government is set to ramp up bond issuance, increasing supply which in theory should push the long end higher. o As the PBoC ramps up its open market operations to try and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, it is likely that open market operations will also target a healthy yield curve. • Is pessimism over declining yields merited? We think the narrative on the government bond market is far too clouded by doom and gloom. Instead, the low yields represent the government with a rare window of low-cost financing at a time when fiscal stimulus support and refinancing of debt are both useful. • Could we see a surprise move for higher yields? Possible catalysts for this include: o The recovery of risk appetite sparking rotation out of bonds into equities. We saw this during the September rally when the CNY moved stronger despite a rate cut. o Accelerated bond issuance could eventually push yields higher. The discourse on China has been quite downbeat over the past few years both domestically and abroad. There certainly are numerous significant challenges; various external and domestic shocks such as the pandemic and trade war in the past few years have added to what was always going to be a difficult long-term economic transition. However, we feel that the environment has since tipped into excessive pessimism. • Most of China’s confidence indicators which are still being published are near or at record lows. • Equity market valuations have recovered over the last several months but spent much of the year at or below the lower range of historical fluctuation bands. On an absolute number basis, the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 are still down more than 30% from their Covid-era peaks. In September, the bold moves from the PBoC sparked a furious rally of Chinese risk assets, with Chinese stocks at one point becoming the strongest-performing equity markets of the year. Our main takeaway was that many investors have been eagerly awaiting signs of an aggressive policy shift – the PBoC’s moves drew renewed interest from foreign and domestic investors alike in China. • Firstly, there was a slower than-hoped-for rollout of fiscal policy support as well as no firm commitments to shore up key areas of weakness such as the property market and consumption. • Secondly, the election victory of Trump has once again shifted the conversation from opportunity for recovery to risks from tariffs and sanctions In our view, the early market reaction to both of these factors has tended to be on the overly pessimistic side. • On the fiscal policy side, we think some investors may have understated the November fiscal policy package. While it is true that there were no specific measures to directly boost growth via supporting the property market or consumption, what the package will achieve is to free local governments up to take action in the coming months. China’s upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and Two Sessions will likely be instrumental in setting the direction for this policy action. • On the Trump effect, early estimates of a 1-2pp shock to GDP growth as well as calls for RMB depreciation of up to 20-50% have since been toned down by many market participants. While an enormous level of uncertainty on the tariff trajectory remains, early signs are that Trump’s tariff stance will be transactional rather than ideological, which in our view opens up the possibility of negotiations and exemptions. While we could eventually get the 60% tariffs proposed if talks fall through, it does not look likely this will be a day-one event. Restoring confidence remains an uphill battle. The short-term challenges remain numerous and considerable. There could be several key steps in this process: • We think the first step has to come from the stabilisation of asset prices, where we see some positive signs in equity markets but the more important area has to be stemming the bleeding in property markets. • The next step has to be gradually moving out of the cost-cutting and downscaling environment and restoring earnings confidence across the economy; 2023 wage growth was the lowest since 1998, and this year’s is unlikely to see too much of a significant upturn. • Finally, the longer-term market and law-based reforms and opening-up process should be continued. Despite increased geopolitical friction in recent years, there have also been significant new opportunities, including stronger trade and investment ties with ASEAN, Latin America, and the Middle East. Improving policy transparency and opening up the market for fair competition will help China continue to attract businesses and help offset some of the impact of Western de-risking. It is a tall task to expect all of these steps to be achieved in a single year. However, some progress has been made in 2024, and we are cautiously optimistic about more progress along these fronts in 2025 as well. It feels like every year economists are talking about how there will be a high level of uncertainty in the year ahead, but at risk of sounding like a broken record, 2025 does once again present a series of uncertainties. At this point, no one can say for certain how fast or how aggressive US tariffs on China will be and what level of retaliation China will take in turn, nor is there much certainty on how fast or aggressive China’s fiscal and monetary policy easing will come. New shocks and opportunities will inevitably emerge, and by the end of next year, the narratives and assumptions currently guiding the markets are likely to have changed significantly. Forecasting is a challenge even in the most stable of times, and we are entering a period where key parameters can change with a single Trump truth or a Chinese government press conference. Our current take on 2025’s outlook can be found in the table below. Source: ING
Despite the physical and emotional toll of his illness, Vandersa found strength in the support of his loved ones and the resilience of his own spirit. He embraced a newfound appreciation for life, cherishing each moment and expressing gratitude for the second chance he had been given. The experience of facing his mortality head-on had transformed him, imparting a deeper sense of empathy, humility, and gratitude.